For the sixth year running, Airbnb is restricting high-risk reservations during Halloween. This Halloween weekend, the company is deploying its anti-party technology across the US and Canada. Party stays generate the same booking fees as regular stays but expose it to additional risks and costs. By blocking them, Airbnb may actually boost its business, even as its stock has delivered little progress over the past five years.
Fewer Parties, Lower Risk
The technology evaluates bookings based on a few factors. Those factors include reservation length, property type, where guests live, and how close the booking is to the stay date. Last Halloween weekend, it blocked more than 23,500 US guests from reserving entire homes. Those unable to book a whole property can opt for a private room or hotel through Airbnb, which helps the company preserve some revenue.
The financial impact of these parties goes beyond booking revenue. The company launched its crackdown after a deadly shooting at a rental during Halloween. In cities like Houston, neighbors blame short-term rentals for house parties. Since Airbnb operates under strict rules in New York and Barcelona, fewer party-related incidents might reduce demands for stricter regulations. Noise sensors and a 24-hour Safety Line provide an added layer of protection.
The Stock Has Gone Nowhere In Five Years
The policy is unlikely to have a significant impact on earnings. Airbnb blocked 23,500 bookings, which is a small number compared to the roughly 533 million nights Airbnb booked last year.
Growth is a more important issue for shareholders. In 2022, nights booked grew 31%, but growth slowed to just 8% in 2025. An investment of $1,000 five years ago was worth about $961 in early October. Still, the stock trades at roughly 32 times forward earnings. That is more than twice the sector median of 15.29 times but approximately 8% below its own five-year average of 35.07 times.
Analysts expect earnings growth of about 31.81% in 2026, and 18% to 20% annually in the following years. This would bring the forward multiple down to roughly 19 times by 2029.
Airbnb’s Halloween restrictions are a small but sensible move toward protecting the company’s reputation, hosts, and neighbors. However, at this valuation, investors need stronger growth to justify the price. Reducing party-related risks won’t be enough to justify the price on its own.
The stock has gained 32% over the past 52 weeks, outperforming the S&P 500’s gain of 11% during the same period. Even in 2026, ABNB stock is up 29%, outperforming the benchmark’s 12% year-to-date (YTD) gain.
Strong Results Support Higher Guidance
Airbnb Inc. reported its second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on August 6. Revenue grew 17% YoY to $3.6 billion, while Gross Booking Value grew 16% YoY to $27.2 billion. CFO Mertz said the company’s capital-light business model helped it generate $1.3 billion in free cash flow in Q2. The company also bought back $1.1 billion worth of its own shares. She added that net income increased from a year earlier due to higher operating income and a $77 million tax benefit.
Looking forward, the company expect to generate revenue of $4.69 billion to $4.77 billion in Q3, representing year-over-year growth of 15% to 17%. It also expects YoY GBV growth to be in the mid-teens. On profitability, the company expects adjusted EBITDA to increase YoY and for adjusted EBITDA margin to be down slightly compared to Q3 2025 due to the timing of investments this year.
What Do Analysts Expect for ABNB Stock?
Airbnb will report Q3 results on November 5. Analysts expect the company to earn $2.72 per share for the September quarter, up 23.08% from $2.21 a year earlier. For full-year 2026, the consensus estimate calls for $4.97 per share, up 23.33% from $4.03 in 2025. Recently, Morgan Stanley maintained a Hold rating and set a price target of $170. In contrast to Morgan Stanley, RBC Capital reiterated a Buy rating on ABNB with a price target of $195.
Overall, 40 analysts rate Airbnb a consensus Moderate Buy. Their average price target is $185.45, representing a modest 8% upside from the current share price.
Airbnb Inc. manages and operates an online marketplace for rooms, which connects hosts and guests online. It is one of the world’s largest travel marketplaces. Its website and mobile app connect hosts with guests seeking to book accommodations, experiences, and services. The company is based in San Francisco, California, and was founded in 2007 by Brian Chesky, Nathan Blecharczyk, and Joseph Gebbia.